THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRICE AND EXPORT OF PEPPER TOWARDS THE PEPPER PRODUCTION IN SARAWAK

SHEILA, ANDY (2008) THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRICE AND EXPORT OF PEPPER TOWARDS THE PEPPER PRODUCTION IN SARAWAK. [Final Year Project Report] (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Price and export of pepper have been identified as the main factors to motivate the pepper production in Sarawak. As Sarawak is the main producer of pepper in Malaysia, so the trend of pepper production in Sarawak will definitely influence the aggregate pepper production in Malaysia. By using the time series data from 1991 until 2005, three tests were going to be conducted such as the ADF unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test and also the Granger Causality test. The Granger Causality test analysis revealed that the price and export showed a positive relation with unidirectional pattern towards the pepper production in Sarawak. However, as the black pepper had most significant impact for pepper in Sarawak so uniquely this study revealed that black pepper export do influence the production of pepper in Sarawak. As the production increased, therefore this will influenced the capacity to supply for pepper export. Perhaps by identifying the strong relation of these two factors toward the production it might help to improve the trend of production in line to accomplish the Ninth Malaysian Plan that is to enhance the agricultural production.

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