The Moderating Role of Country Risks on the Relationship between the Success of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Projects under the Belt and Road Initiative and Its Determinants

Qiliang, Hu (2025) The Moderating Role of Country Risks on the Relationship between the Success of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Projects under the Belt and Road Initiative and Its Determinants. PhD thesis, UNIMAS.

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Abstract

This study examines the factors influencing the success of Public–Private Partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Using the World Bank’s Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) database, this study analyses the state of infrastructure in BRI countries from 1993 to 2023. Although several projects are in the “action” stage, a significant number of PPP infrastructure projects are either “cancelled” or “distressed”, indicating project failures. Therefore, examining the factors that influence the success of PPP infrastructure projects is crucial. The research objectives of this study are to explore the relationship between factors such as country risk and macro factors that influence the success of PPP projects. This study investigates the factors influencing the success of Chinese enterprises investing in PPP infrastructure projects in BRI countries, contributing theoretical value to the literature and practical value in providing decision support to enterprises. Taking country risk as the moderating variable and macro factors as control variables, the study demonstrates the relationship between the success of PPP infrastructure projects and project profile factors. The theories adopted in this research include public goods theory, institutional theory, cooperative game theory, and risk management theory. The analysis method was based on logistic regression analysis conducted using Econometrics software. Data on the success and failure of PPP projects, country risk, GDP, country openness and private sector development were obtained from the World Bank’s PPI database and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) database, cross-referenced with the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). The study conducted correlation analysis, heterogeneity analysis and diagnostic tests, with results indicating acceptable variables and reasonable model selection. The logistic regression analysis indicates that the notion of project profile factors significantly affecting project success was partially accepted. For instance, multilateral country support has increased Log-odds of project success, while investment scale has decreased Log-odds of project success. Investment scale’s negative correlation coefficient was reduced when the control variables—national GDP growth rate, support for the private sector, and openness—were added. The study also found that the moderating variables—political risk, economic risk, and financial risk—negatively affected PPP project success, which was accepted. Further, the negative impact of investment scale on project success was weakened based on the moderating effect of country risk. Based on the empirical results, this study provides recommendations for Chinese enterprises. This guidance can help improve the success rate of Chinese enterprises investing in PPP infrastructure projects in BRI countries, promoting joint development along the route.

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