Spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the coupling of carbon productivity and high-quality economic development in China

Lingdi, Li and Mohammad Affendy, Arip and Puah, Chin Hong (2025) Spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the coupling of carbon productivity and high-quality economic development in China. Scientific Reports, 15 (9114). pp. 1-21. ISSN 2045-2322

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Abstract

This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of the coordinated development between carbon productivity (CP) and high-quality economic development (HQED) across 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2021. Using the entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree (CCD), kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatial econometric models, the research identifies several key findings: first, a coupling and coordination relationship characterized by mutual influence and restraint exists between carbon productivity and high-quality economic development. Both carbon productivity and high-quality economic development, along with their coupling coordination degree, have exhibited continuous growth, demonstrating a spatial distribution pattern of “higher in the east than in the west, and higher in the south than in the north,” accompanied by expanding spatial concentration and pronounced regional disparities. Second, the global Moran’s I for the coupling coordination degree is positive, indicating significant spatial effects between carbon productivity and high-quality economic development. The LISA map highlights that high–high clusters are concentrated in the economically advanced eastern coastal areas, while low–low clusters are predominantly located in underdeveloped central and western regions and energy-dependent heavy industrial provinces. Third, the spatial effects of coupling coordination degree are influenced by factors such as economic development level, urbanization, technological progress, environmental regulation, the proportion of the secondary industry, and marketization level. The significance of these factors varies in the decomposition effect. Finally, this study provides policy recommendations. Within the framework of China’s “dual-carbon” goals, promoting the coupling and coordinated development of carbon productivity and high-quality economic development, while fostering balanced regional growth, holds substantial practical importance.

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