Identifying The Indicators Of Long-run Price Dynamics Of Cryptocurrency: The Case Of Bitcoin

Teoh, Chun Keat (2022) Identifying The Indicators Of Long-run Price Dynamics Of Cryptocurrency: The Case Of Bitcoin. [Final Year Project Report] (Unpublished)

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Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the long and short run correlations between the price of Bitcoin and its determinants, which include mining difficulty, Bitcoin in circulation, gold price, Google Interest, exchange rate of EUR/USD, and S&P 500. This paper is adopting the time series of monthly data from November of 2016 to December of 2021, which will be made up of 62 observations. The key motivation for me to be being concerned to the financial and tech industry is the anxiety and threat that the price of Bitcoin could indeed fluctuate anytime soon. This project goes ahead to evaluate the implications of both macroeconomics and technological variables on the price of Bitcoin. To put it in another way, the objective is to determine if those determinants will significantly contribute to attempting to solve the issue of the price of Bitcoin that the Bitcoin’s users or investors are currently confronting. The key test of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed besides of Unit Root Test. The long run correlations between the dependent variable and the independent variables are investigated using ARDL. This leads to the adoption of ARDL model indicates a steady long run correlation between Bitcoin price and its variables.

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