Impact of international trade on economic growth in Russia

Kelvin, Lau Kiong Yun (2022) Impact of international trade on economic growth in Russia. [Final Year Project Report] (Unpublished)

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Abstract

The goal of this research is to find out how international trade affects Russian economic growth. The research lasted 30 years, from 1992 to 2021. Exports, imports, the balance of payments (BOP), and exchange rate are the independent variables in this study. Economic growth is the dependent variable under investigation (GDP). The unit root test and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test were utilised in this investigation. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration test is a cointegration test. The Granger causality test based on the vector error correction model is then used to investigate long-term and short-term relationships (VECM). Finally, out-of-sample relationships are investigated using both variance decomposition and impulse response functions. Empirical findings reveal that there is a link between variables, such as exports and imports, that affects not only economic growth but also bop and bot. Furthermore, the results of the test variables' short-run Granger causality reveal that there is a one-way causation from exports, imports, balance of payments, and robotics to all GDP independent variables. Furthermore, outside the sample, there is a causal relationship between GDP and other factors.

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