Female Voter Turnout And Victory Margins In Sarawak Elections: A Linear Regression Analysis (2006–2021) [Penyertaan Pengundi Wanita Dan Margin Kemenangan Dalam Pilihan Raya Sarawak: Analisis Regresi Linear (2006–2021)]

Mohammad Razi, Sitam and Tarmiji, Masron and Azizul, Ahmad and Yoshinari, Kimura and Ryoji, Soda (2026) Female Voter Turnout And Victory Margins In Sarawak Elections: A Linear Regression Analysis (2006–2021) [Penyertaan Pengundi Wanita Dan Margin Kemenangan Dalam Pilihan Raya Sarawak: Analisis Regresi Linear (2006–2021)]. Akademika-Journal of Southeast Asia Social Sciences and Humanities, 96 (1). pp. 237-253. ISSN 0126-5008

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Abstract

This study investigates the statistical relationship between female voter turnout and electoral success in the Sarawak State Legislative Assembly elections from 2006 to 2021, addressing a significant gap in the literature on gendered electoral participation in Malaysian subnational contexts. Despite Malaysia’s growing discourse on women’s political empowerment, little empirical evidence exists on how female voter demographics shape constituency-level victory margins. The primary objective is to quantify the extent to which female voter turnout influences the total votes required for electoral victory. Employing a quantitative research design, this study utilizes linear regression analysis across four electoral cycles, analyzing constituency-level data sourced from the Election Commission of Malaysia. The results consistently demonstrate a strong, positive correlation between higher female voter turnout and increased victory margins across the 2006, 2011, and 2016 elections (R² ranging from 0.677 to 0.879), although the relationship weakened in 2021 (R² = 0.322), possibly reflecting shifting socio-political dynamics and evolving voter behavior. These findings highlight the critical role of female voters in shaping electoral outcomes, challenging assumptions that underestimate gendered political engagement in Sarawak. The study concludes that political parties and policymakers must develop gender-responsive electoral strategies, emphasizing the targeted mobilization of female voters and the removal of structural barriers to their participation. These insights contribute to broader debates on inclusive governance and electoral competitiveness in pluralistic societies. Future research should integrate socio-economic, spatial, and digital campaign variables to further elucidate the complex determinants of women’s electoral influence in Malaysia’s evolving political landscape.

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