The Predibility of Asean-5 Exchange Rates

Ahmad Zubaidi, Baharumshah and Liew, Khim Sen (2000) The Predibility of Asean-5 Exchange Rates. [Working Paper]

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In an attempt to determine the predictability of Asean exchange rates, five currencies including Malaysian ringgit, Thailand baht, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah and the Philippines peso, denominated in US dollar as well as Japanese yen, were modeled using advanced time series analysis. Results suggested that Singapore exchange rate could be better predicted when denominated in US dollar, most probably because the East Asian Financial Crisis did not affect them both. On the other hand, other Asean exchange rates were better predicted when denominated in Japanese yen, as they had closer economic ties with Japan. However, while Japan had undergone serious recession after the crisis, it did not experience dramatic political instability as experienced by Indonesia, hence Indonesian rupiah remained unpredictable by yen. These results show that although advanced time series analysis dealt with economic fundamentals implicitly; it still could be a powerful tool for exchange rates modeling and forecasting, especially in the medium to long term.

Item Type: Working Paper
Uncontrolled Keywords: UNIMAS, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, ASEAN-5, Exchange rate
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Divisions: Academic Faculties, Institutes and Centres > Faculty of Economics and Business
Faculties, Institutes, Centres > Faculty of Economics and Business
Depositing User: Karen Kornalius
Date Deposited: 24 Jun 2014 07:34
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2020 01:18

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