Forecasting property market dynamics: Insights from the property cycle indicator

Puah, Chin-Hong and Kuek, Tai Hock and Mohammad Affendy, Arip and Siew, Shirty Ling Wong (2016) Forecasting property market dynamics: Insights from the property cycle indicator. Information (Japan), 19. pp. 2225-2232. ISSN 1343-4500

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Abstract

The present study replicates the movement of the property cycle in Malaysia and predicts the timing of significant changes in property market dynamics. Combining property-related variables and macroeconomic series, the property cycle indicator (PCI) was established in the same manner as the [1]. The constructed PCI consistently exhibits predictive ability and leading attributes of the Malaysian property market across the period of 1991-2013. The average lead time of 3.7 months makes the PCI a forward-looking means of predicting the near-term prospects of the evolving property market. In essence, the empirical finding demonstrates that the indicator-based approach offers a promising early signaling mechanism for property market forecasting

Item Type: E-Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Near-Term Forcasting, Property cycle indicator, Turning Point, research, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, unimas, university, universiti, Borneo, Malaysia, Sarawak, Kuching, Samarahan, ipta, education
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Academic Faculties, Institutes and Centres > Faculty of Economics and Business
Depositing User: Ibrahim
Date Deposited: 17 Oct 2016 01:48
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2017 01:14
URI: http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13944

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