The relationship between monetary base and monetary aaggregates in asean - 5

Ng,, Chai Chet. (2007) The relationship between monetary base and monetary aaggregates in asean - 5. [Final Year Project Report] (Unpublished)

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Abstract

he purpose of this study is attempted to inve stigate the existence of causal relationship between monetary base and monetary aggregates (M1 and M2) for ASEAN - 5 using the time series data from 1990:Q1 to 2005:Q4. This study is conducted by employing three methods, which are Augmented Dickey - Fuller (19 79) unit root test, Johansen - Juselius (1990) cointegration test and Granger causality test. Only Singapore and Thailand show a significant long - run cointegrating vector between monetary base and monetary variables, which are M1 and M2 respectively. The res t of the ASEAN - 5 countries fail to show a long - run relationship between the variables. The causality test results show that in general there is not uni - directional with causality running from monetary base to monetary aggregates in ASEAN - 5. Thus, monetary targeting is inappropriate used as a monetary policy in ASEAN - 5. In particular, policy should be designed to improve and strengthen the monetary and financial market in order to get better controlling in money supply process. Each ASEAN - 5 country has to en sure the selected intermediate target must be measurable, controllable and predictable.

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