Tackling macroeconomic precariousness: The role of the composite leading indicator

Puah, Chin-Hong and Tan, Wei-tTing and Shazali, Abu Mansor and Wong, Shirly Siew Ling (2016) Tackling macroeconomic precariousness: The role of the composite leading indicator. Information (Japan), 19 (6B). pp. 2217-2224. ISSN 13434500

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Abstract

The present study explored the possibility of extending the leading indicator framework to establish a composite leading indicator (CLI) for the Cambodian economy. We established the CLI on the basis of a non-parametric approach originated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). We subjected a great number of macroeconomic series to empirical scrutiny and settled on two prominent leading variables that ultimately molded a remarkable CLI that effectively tracked the precarious ebb and flow of the macroeconomic environment in Cambodia. Of note is that an average lead time of 7 months manifested great potential for CLI to evolve as a pragmatic means of near-term forecasting to prefigure the fluctuating business cycle.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Business cycle; Leading indicator; Near-term forecasting, research, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, unimas, university, universiti, Borneo, Malaysia, Sarawak, Kuching, Samarahan, ipta, education
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Academic Faculties, Institutes and Centres > Faculty of Economics and Business
Depositing User: Ibrahim
Date Deposited: 31 Oct 2016 06:49
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2017 01:15
URI: http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/14085

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