Forecasting property market dynamics: Insights from the property cycle indicator

Puah, Chin-Hong and Kuek, Tai Hock and Mohammad Affendy, Arip and Siew, Shirty Ling Wong (2016) Forecasting property market dynamics: Insights from the property cycle indicator. Information (Japan), 19. pp. 2225-2232. ISSN 1343-4500

[img] PDF
Forecasting property market.docx

Download (83kB)


The present study replicates the movement of the property cycle in Malaysia and predicts the timing of significant changes in property market dynamics. Combining property-related variables and macroeconomic series, the property cycle indicator (PCI) was established in the same manner as the [1]. The constructed PCI consistently exhibits predictive ability and leading attributes of the Malaysian property market across the period of 1991-2013. The average lead time of 3.7 months makes the PCI a forward-looking means of predicting the near-term prospects of the evolving property market. In essence, the empirical finding demonstrates that the indicator-based approach offers a promising early signaling mechanism for property market forecasting

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Near-Term Forcasting, Property cycle indicator, Turning Point, research, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, unimas, university, universiti, Borneo, Malaysia, Sarawak, Kuching, Samarahan, ipta, education
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Academic Faculties, Institutes and Centres > Faculty of Economics and Business
Depositing User: Ibrahim
Date Deposited: 17 Oct 2016 01:48
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2017 01:14

Actions (For repository members only: login required)

View Item View Item